Majilis-e-Shura, the National Assembly of Pakistan was last elected on 18 February 2008, and all cheers for it, to have successfully completed five years in term on 17 March 2013, when it was dissolved for holding fresh elections in May 2013. It is record of sorts and a milestone in the 65 years of independent history of Pakistan, where this election will mark the only democratic transition between two elected governments, albeit, if it happens. The Prime Minister has advised the President to announce a suitable date for holding the general elections and 11th of May, will be etched in the annals of Pakistani History. The prospect of an elected government and metamorphosis of electoral power to successor is an unprecedented event, and as neighbors, we must be alarmed. Forecasting the outcome of this balloting is not my agenda, and nor do I have Godly powers to predict this uncertainty. The motive is to identify the non-state actors who could play a major role in the process.
Judiciary Pakistan’s judiciary, led by Chief Justice Iftikhar Muhammad Chaudhry, has been able to establish its authority and independence over the other bureaus of the system. During the last half a decade the country has experienced a strongly argued and contested decentralization of power, and the Supreme Court of Pakistan (Adalat-e-Uzma) surmounted the pyramid. The de jure powers of the court as outlined in the Constitution can only be understood in the context of Pakistan's historic martial laws. Despite the military interventions in the government, the court maintained its institutional integrity and authority, albeit to some degree. It may be the only court in the world which could announce and ensure execution of a former head of state (Zulfikar Ali Bhutto). And may be the only audacious one to dismiss a Prime Minister, retrospectively, for not initiating corruption cases against a sitting President. In a country which is torn over numerous dissensions and agendas, this is a perfect example of moral supremacy. Despite its controversial rulings over the year, the Supreme Court has the strong support of the people and the elite, and is one of the most respected institutions in the Nation.
Army The relationship between Pakistan Army and Governance is Psychological. Army is Psycho and governance is supposed to be Logical, hence, they don’t go well hand in hand. There have been three successful attempts and the country has spent several decades under military rule; 1958 – 1971, 1977 – 1988, 1999 – 2008. The longest one being the ‘Operation Fair Play’ on the midnight of 4th July 1977 by the then Army Chief Zia-ul-Haq. Military might in the country is seconded to ‘Allaha’ alone. Pakistan’s powerful Army has institutional cohesion and control over many of the country’s economic and military assets. But today, under the leadership of Gen Ashfaq Kayani (whose tenure was extended for another three years in 2010 by the President), it has been courted, challenged and ordered to balance its relations with civilian, judicial, foreign leaders etc. Hopefully the coming elections will be a welcome change for the country without any controversial military intervention.
US of America Pakistan will remain an important commonwealth for the US, and for reasons larger than counter terrorism. The numerous stand off’s and cold shoulders in the last few years over the drone attacks or impinging sovereignty of Pakistan by ‘Geronimo’, have been casted away with new economic ties and military aid. The strategic location of the country between the Indian Ocean and Persian Gulf, neighboring China, India, Iran and Afghanistan, and its abysmal growing influence in South Asian Region, will continue to inspire American interest in the political environment of the country.
Youth The country has approximately 190 Million souls on board, and nearly two-third of it is under 30 years of age. The Malala incident was just a spark which marked the revolutionary ‘spring’ sentiments among the masses. Talented Pakistani youth has started to bring in more innovation and novel ideas than the matured one. Today the youth, including women have ventured in all fields, working concurrently. Optimism for change is their new tool. But, unfortunately the canvas is not that promising as it sound. Illiteracy and unemployment have crippled the country to its core, and Jihaad is still very prevalent. The coming elections will indeed be testing times for the youth and the world which could see an upheaval.
Musharraf’s Return Pervez Musharraf, is a ex-four star general of Pakistani Army, who staged a coup to be at the helm of affairs as the tenth President. He has been living in exile for the last four years, fearing his life and prosecution. On 24th March he will make a dramatic home coming and has made it clear that he will be contesting the upcoming round of brawls. His supporters and loyalists have been pro-active to create a conducive arena for contest, and have been able to arrange a pre-arrest bail for the numerous cases against him, including the murder conspiracy of Akbar Bugti and Benazir. But for Pakistan, nothing is inacceptable or absurd, anything can happen. He said and I quote “I am ready for a long fight but the time has come for me to return and play my role in Pakistani politics. Security is not a concern for me and I have not asked for any security from the government. I will have my own security when I return home," unquote. Though the local sentiments for him are not very favorable, and many think he will not return back alive. But, indeed he can thicken the broth.
There are so many constitutional, religious and inconsequential players who will influence and inspire the outcome of elections of Pakistan this year, and it is pragmatically beyond the boundaries of possibility to put them on paper and work out their compatibility. The entire mechanics of democracy in Pakistan is a complex, time and again failing machinery, and the functions and capability of the component cannot be assessed. What Benazir said once, is the most apt oneliner to understand the Pakistan's republicanism -'Democray is the Best Revenge'. But for us, we have certain big questions to investigate…- Is a stable and democratic Pakistan - Boon or Bane?
- The regional supremacy of India in South East Asia has been an economic drive for us. Can an elected majority or coalition of Pakistan upset the dynamics?
- Pakistan always fights its identity crisis by defining opposition to India. What are the external threats envisaged during the election?
- How many more lives and blasts are expected to rip apart the country? Can anyone gauge and evaluate the approaching Electoral Violence?
- As a lovable neighbor, do we need to have cautious approach or have buoyant outlook?
What preparations should be made by the Security forces of India deployed on LoC and Kashmir, envisaging likely Internal Security disturbance and border clashes?
Think India, THINK !!!
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